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Why China's population is shrinking
And why that’s a big deal.
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For the first time in six decades, China’s population is shrinking, and it’s predicted it could create a demographic crisis. That’s because China isn’t just shrinking, it’s also aging. And the majority of Chinese couples are not considering having more than one child. Because of this, China is predicted to lose nearly 50 percent of its population by 2100.
China’s population decline can be traced back to the restrictive family-planning policies launched in the 1970s and an impressive economic boom fueled by China’s huge labor force.
China’s modernization brought rapid urbanization, rising income levels, and better education to large parts of China. Combined, these policies and growth have given China one of the lowest birth rates in the world.
Today, China is trying to reverse its population decline. Not just because an aging population is hard to sustain economically, but because China’s impressive economic growth, until now, has relied on its people. As China’s population challenges deepen over time, it might have to rethink how to grow its economy and care for its citizens.
You can explore China’s birth and death rate data via the United Nations Population portal, here:
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/MORT/Deaths/156
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/Births/156
As well as the country’s total population and predictions here:
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/156
Here are some key facts about China’s declining population from Pew Research:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/
You can read some surprising details about China’s family planning policies — for example, the One-Child Policy was actually less impactful than the Later, Longer, Fewer campaign — here: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/martinwhyte/files/challenging_myths_published_version.pdf
Here’s an overview of China’s economic development from the World Bank:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
And a report on China’s income gap:
https://www.aeaweb.org/research/charts/china-income-gap-rural-urban
For an in-depth look at the cruelty and human cost of China’s One-Child policy, I recommend the documentary One Child Nation by Nanfu Wang:
https://www.pbs.org/independentlens/documentaries/one-child-nation/
You can explore population pyramids from across the world on the US Census Bureau’s website:
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?COUNTRY_YEAR=2023&COUNTRY_YR_ANIM=2023
Finally, our expert, Professor Wang Feng, believes China’s population growth can be framed in a positive light. To understand how, read this piece he wrote for the New York Times:
https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2023/02/01/wang-feng-optimistic-alternative/
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